The Main Event

In the six-week rumble that we have termed “The Battle for Pennsylvania,” clearly this is the main event.

Tonight, live from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, it will be Clinton vs. Obama, 15 rounds (actually 90 minutes) for the heavyweight (at least for Democrats) title.

And there is some sobering news for the Clinton camp this morning. The race is getting tighter. Especially here in the Philadelphia surburbs.

According to the latest Keystone Poll, Obama is closing the gap on Clinton, and he’s doing it by winning support in the five-county Philadelphia area.

Overall, Clinton is still up by six points. 46-40, among likely Democratic voters.

She continues to win by big numbers in the western part of the state. But that’s no longer the case in the southeast, where she now trails the senator from Illinois. The poll shows Obama ahead, 51-38 percent, in southeastern Pennsylvania. The gap is even wider in Philadelphia.

Pollster G. Terry Madonna noted the huge shift to Obama in the Southeast.

“Obama is also winning the Philadelphia suburbs and it is there where he has shown his biggest gain from March to April. If Obama has any chance to defeat Clinton, the Philadelphia suburbs are key to accomplishing that.”

The poll does come with one huge asterisk. It was taken before the full effect of Obama’s comments about “bitter” small-town Pennsylvania voters really ignited.

What this likely will come down to is the same thing almost any election comes down to: turnout.

Obama will need huge numbers in the southeast and Philly to offset Clinton’s advantage in the rest of the state.

Six days to go. Tonight all eyes will be on Philly.

Next Tuesday, it’s likely all eyes will be on Delaware County and the rest of the Philly suburbs.

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