People keep asking me who I think is going to win the hotly contested special election in the 161st state House race.
That's one of the good things about this kind of race - they have the stage to themselves.
Republican Paul Mullen is focusing on going door-to-door pushing his message. He's facing Democrat Leanne Krueger-Braneky and the woman who has really made this race interesting, conservative Republican write-in candidate Lisa Esler.
Esler, a popular Penn-Delco School Board member, and others in the conservative wing of the party were irate at party leaders and the process used to make Mullen the endorsed Republican.
That's what happens when you back a labor leader who has been vocal in his support for Democrats, including Barack Obama, Bob Casey Jr., Joe Sestak, and perhaps most seriously John Kane in his recent knockdown, drag-out war with Tom McGarrigle for the 26th District state Senate seat.
There were a lot of unpleasantries exchanged between labor unions and Republicans. Not everyone, it appears, is willing to forgive and forget. Esler and her group certainly remember, and they've been screaming bloody murder to anyone who will listen that Mullen does not engender what they believe are the true beliefs of the party.
Our op-ed pages continue to be dominated by letters staking out their sides in what has turned into a barn-burner.
All of that aside, the key to this race is the same key to any election, especially here in Delaware County.
It's all about turnout.
That tends to run in the Republicans' favor. Their loyalists are more likely to get to the polls, especially in a mid-summer special election that falls during one of the most popular vacation weeks of the year.
And while Dems now actually outnumber Republicans across the county, that does not hold true in the 161st. Republicans still have the edge. If Mullen and the GOP gets the faithful to the polls, he should persevere.
But Esler remains the X-factor. It's entirely possible she could siphon off enough votes to open the door to a victory for the Democrat Krueger-Braneky.
So who wins?
I still say it's Mullen, but much closer that anyone thinks.
Just don't put the house on it.
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